September Monthly Market Commentary

October 2, 2026

September ended a resilient but increasingly complex third quarter, with the S&P 500 near all-time highs despite shifting market leadership and weaker breadth. Higher rates and energy prices were offset by strong earnings and continued AI optimism, reinforcing the importance of discipline and diversification.

Key Takeaways:

Market Breadth: deteriorated considerably in September, with about 42% of S&P 500 companies trading above their 200-day moving average, down from roughly 75% at the end of August, signaling a significant shift in market leadership.
Interest Rates: moved higher as stronger-than-expected growth and persistent inflation created another “good news is bad news” environment, with the 10-year Treasury yield ending September at 5.29%.
AI: remains a major equity market driver, but the theme has become increasingly “show-me” focused as investors look more closely at fundamentals and whether AI investment is translating into results.
Fixed Income: has become more attractive as higher rates have increased income from high-quality bonds, creating meaningful income and diversification opportunities within portfolios.

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2026 Q3 Stonebridge Economic Outlook

October 2, 2026

This August edition of the Stonebridge Economic Outlook examines an economy that has performed somewhat better than previously expected but continues to face significant uncertainty. It highlights the key factors shaping the forecast, including economic growth, consumer spending, labor market trends, inflation, and the challenges facing the Federal Reserve.

Key Takeaways:

Economic growth is expected to be somewhat stronger than previously forecast, although underlying labor market conditions and income growth remain areas of concern.
Headline inflation is expected to moderate as energy prices decline, while core inflation is likely to remain elevated due to ongoing tariffs and other macroeconomic policies.
The Federal Reserve remains caught between persistent inflation and a weakening labor market, making the outlook for monetary policy increasingly uncertain.

Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for 2026.

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August Monthly Market Commentary

August 4, 2026

July was a reminder that opportunities can be found across the market, even during periods of uncertainty. While the largest technology companies faced headwinds, strength broadened into other sectors, reinforcing the value of maintaining a diversified portfolio. At the same time, higher interest rates continue to create attractive opportunities in fixed income, allowing investors to lock in compelling yields while remaining focused on their long-term financial goals.

Key Takeaways:

Broader Market Leadership: Market gains expanded beyond the largest technology companies, reinforcing the value of a diversified portfolio.
Stay Disciplined: Recent volatility highlights the importance of staying focused on long-term goals rather than reacting to short-term market swings.
Markets Remain Data-Driven: Inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical events continue to influence market performance and create new investment opportunities.
Fixed Income Opportunities: Higher Treasury yields and attractive municipal bond valuations continue to create compelling income opportunities.