This April edition of the Stonebridge Economic Outlook assesses a U.S. economy increasingly shaped by policy shocks, geopolitical risk, and unsettled trade dynamics. It outlines the key assumptions behind the forecast and highlights how inflation, interest rates, employment, and consumer spending may evolve as uncertainty remains unusually elevated. Key Takeaways:
- Policy shocks (war, tariffs, and fiscal decisions) are making the outlook unusually volatile and harder than normal to forecast.
- Elevated oil prices and tariffs are expected to keep price pressures higher for longer, limiting how soon rate cuts are likely.
- Consumer demand has some support from transfer income and the wealth effect, but slower real income gains and a gradually higher unemployment rate point to softer GDP and PCE growth.
Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for 2026.
Read Outlook Here
2026 Q2 Stonebridge Economic Outlook
Category: Economy
2026 Q1 Stonebridge Economic Outlook
The U.S. economy heads into 2026 with strong recent growth but rising uncertainty. Surging consumer spending, volatile inflation, and the effects of higher tariffs have created a mixed picture beneath the headlines.
Key Takeaways:
- Q3 2025 growth was shockingly strong, but is it sustainable
- Inflation is volatile and largely driven by tariffs & policy pressure
- The outlook for 2026 is slower and could be policy driven
- There is potential risk in the quality of economic data going forward
Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for 2026.
Read Article Here
Stonebridge Economic Outlook – September 30, 2025
The U.S. economy in 2025 has been surprisingly resilient on the surface but is increasingly vulnerable beneath.
Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy for the remainder of the year, along with an early look into 2026. Focusing on the major themes, trends, and policy implications, here are the key takeaways:
- Growth: Bumpy But Resilient
- Labor Market: Cracks Emerging
- Monetary Policy: Pivot Under Pressure
- Inflation: Persistent & Sticky
Read Economic Outlook – September 30, 2025
Stonebridge Economic Outlook – June 27, 2025
As we remain in a volatile and policy-sensitive economic environment, what does this mean for the state of the U.S. economy? Near-term growth is driven by trade distortions and income spikes, while structural headwinds may threaten momentum later in 2025.
Key variables to watch:
- Tariff permanence and scope
- Consumer behavior – permanent income effects
- Fed policy response – particularly if inflation and unemployment diverge
- Final shape of fiscal legislation
Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy in the remaining half of the year.
Read Economic Outlook
2025 Stonebridge Economic Forum
Between the unveiling of the administration’s new tariff plan on “Liberation Day”, the “Wait and See Mode” of the FOMC and interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical events, 2025 has certainly been a whirlwind. In times of market uncertainty, we are reminded to stay disciplined through volatility.
On Thursday, April 10th, we hosted our annual Economic Forum, addressing President Trump’s tariff turbulence, market pullbacks, and renewed concerns of global growth, inflation, and recession. Hear from our Chief Economist, Director of Equity, and Director of Fixed Income as they discussed what lies ahead in 2025.
2025 Stonebridge Economic Forum
Economic Outlook: Special Update – April 7, 2025
On April 2nd, declared as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, President Trump announced the highly anticipated new tariff plan. Since its unveiling, market volatility has spiked and concerns over global growth and inflation have renewed.
Transitory Stagflation!
Providing his new forecast for the next chapter of the U.S. economy, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy in 2025.
Read Economic Outlook: Special Update
Economic Outlook – March 27, 2025
Navigating the next chapter of the U.S. economy, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., forecasts what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy.
Key Headlines:
- Trump’s Tariffs – Temporary Turbulence?
- “Wait and See Mode” – FOMC and Interest Rates
- Data Integrity – An Argument for Apolitical Data Reporting
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Stonebridge Economic Outlook – January 6, 2025
Welcoming in the new year, the centerpiece of this Economic Outlook is the path for the U.S. economy as it faces the incoming new government administration, along with other various factors influencing its growth in 2025.
Key Headlines:
- Trump Policy Assumptions
- The Yield Curve and Recessions
- Implications for Interest Rates
Addressing this, our Stonebridge Chief Economist – Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D. – forecasts what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy.