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2026 Q1 Stonebridge Economic Outlook

Category: Economy

2026 Q1 Stonebridge Economic Outlook

The U.S. economy heads into 2026 with strong recent growth but rising uncertainty. Surging consumer spending, volatile inflation, and the effects of higher tariffs have created a mixed picture beneath the headlines.

Key Takeaways:

  • Q3 2025 growth was shockingly strong, but is it sustainable
  • Inflation is volatile and largely driven by tariffs & policy pressure
  • The outlook for 2026 is slower and could be policy driven
  • There is potential risk in the quality of economic data going forward

Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for 2026.

 

Read Article Here

Stonebridge Economic Outlook – September 30, 2025

The U.S. economy in 2025 has been surprisingly resilient on the surface but is increasingly vulnerable beneath.

Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy for the remainder of the year, along with an early look into 2026. Focusing on the major themes, trends, and policy implications, here are the key takeaways:

  • Growth: Bumpy But Resilient
  • Labor Market: Cracks Emerging
  • Monetary Policy: Pivot Under Pressure
  • Inflation: Persistent & Sticky
Read Economic Outlook – September 30, 2025

Stonebridge Economic Outlook – June 27, 2025

As we remain in a volatile and policy-sensitive economic environment, what does this mean for the state of the U.S. economy? Near-term growth is driven by trade distortions and income spikes, while structural headwinds may threaten momentum later in 2025.

Key variables to watch:

  • Tariff permanence and scope
  • Consumer behavior – permanent income effects
  • Fed policy response – particularly if inflation and unemployment diverge
  • Final shape of fiscal legislation

Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy in the remaining half of the year.

Read Economic Outlook

2025 Stonebridge Economic Forum

Between the unveiling of the administration’s new tariff plan on “Liberation Day”, the “Wait and See Mode” of the FOMC and interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical events, 2025 has certainly been a whirlwind. In times of market uncertainty, we are reminded to stay disciplined through volatility.

On Thursday, April 10th, we hosted our annual Economic Forum, addressing President Trump’s tariff turbulence, market pullbacks, and renewed concerns of global growth, inflation, and recession. Hear from our Chief Economist, Director of Equity, and Director of Fixed Income as they discussed what lies ahead in 2025.

2025 Stonebridge Economic Forum

Economic Outlook: Special Update – April 7, 2025

On April 2nd, declared as “Liberation Day” for U.S. trade policy, President Trump announced the highly anticipated new tariff plan. Since its unveiling, market volatility has spiked and concerns over global growth and inflation have renewed.

Transitory Stagflation!

Providing his new forecast for the next chapter of the U.S. economy, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy in 2025.

Read Economic Outlook: Special Update

Economic Outlook – March 27, 2025

Navigating the next chapter of the U.S. economy, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., forecasts what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy.

Key Headlines:

  • Trump’s Tariffs – Temporary Turbulence?
  • “Wait and See Mode” – FOMC and Interest Rates
  • Data Integrity – An Argument for Apolitical Data Reporting

 

Read Economic Outlook

Stonebridge Economic Outlook – January 6, 2025

Welcoming in the new year, the centerpiece of this Economic Outlook is the path for the U.S. economy as it faces the incoming new government administration, along with other various factors influencing its growth in 2025.

Key Headlines:

  • Trump Policy Assumptions
  • The Yield Curve and Recessions
  • Implications for Interest Rates

Addressing this, our Stonebridge Chief Economist – Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D. – forecasts what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy.

Read Economic Outlook Update

Stonebridge Economic Outlook Update

On Tuesday, November 5th, 2024, our nation re-elected President Donald Trump into the White House as the 47th President of the United States of America, and as of writing, the Republican Party has won the Senate and has secured majority of the House of Representatives.

Following the election’s “red sweep” results, on Thursday, November 7th, 2024, the FOMC announced its decision to cut interest rates again – this time by 25 basis points.

Without a doubt, this was a notably historic week for America. So, what does this mean for investors and how does this impact the economy?

Read Economic Outlook Update

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