As we remain in a volatile and policy-sensitive economic environment, what does this mean for the state of the U.S. economy? Near-term growth is driven by trade distortions and income spikes, while structural headwinds may threaten momentum later in 2025.
Key variables to watch:
- Tariff permanence and scope
- Consumer behavior – permanent income effects
- Fed policy response – particularly if inflation and unemployment diverge
- Final shape of fiscal legislation
Providing his new forecast, our Chief Economist, Daniel E. Laufenberg, Ph.D., details what lies ahead for monetary and fiscal policy in the remaining half of the year.